By 2050, humanity is expected to welcome a total of one billion ‘climate refugees’, a term pertaining to people displaced by ecological consequences — consequences heightened by the climate crisis. Rising sea levels continue to sink islands in Asia Pacific, forests in the Amazon are reduced to ash and are constantly pillaged of resources, and vulnerable regions in Asia brave a smattering of storms each year. However, as mortifying as the statistics may seem, this isn’t a new phenomenon. This is something specialists have predicted for decades. A 2018 article from the NPR shares that since 2008, an average of 24 million people have been displaced by catastrophic weather disasters annually. Climate scientists and migration experts only expect that number to rise as climate change worsens pre-existing climate conditions (McDonnell, 2018). With irresponsible human activity speeding up catastrophic climate-related events, more and more people will be deemed vulnerable to the effects of climate change. More and more people will likely be driven out of their home countries. More and more people are slated to become climate refugees.
Perhaps the true elephant in the room isn’t the dilemma of knowing what to do with these refugees, but rather the terminology in general. How do we begin to define climate refugees? Fridays For Future, a youth movement inspired by Greta Thunberg, believes that before people become climate refugees fleeing disaster, they first fall under the label coined by the said movement: MAPA, an acronym for Most Affected People & Areas. This serves as a new alternative to the now-derogatory term ‘Global South’ which was created with highly colonial connotations (Harvey, 2020). The usage of the word ‘refugee’ is where things start to get messy. Being unable to put a clear definition on what climate refugees are means being unable to help environmentally displaced individuals. In a nutshell, once the worst floods break through our neighborhoods and the biggest of fires reduce the largest forests to ash, the people living in these areas won’t be able to apply for refugee status. There is trouble in properly defining what a climate refugee is, mainly due to the monumental amounts of international paperwork requiring revision, hence the preferred terminology is ‘environmental migrant’. Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, whether temporarily or permanently, and move either within their country or abroad (Martinez & Monella, 2020). Migrants, however, cannot apply for refugee status, thus rendering them unable for eligibility of refugee benefits — benefits that make starting over in a brand new country far easier. McDonnell further implores that there are no international agreements on who should qualify as a climate refugee — much less plans to manage the worsening crisis. However, some figureheads in policymaking have chosen not to shy away from using the word ‘refugee’ in defining ecologically displaced individuals. Environment Programme (United Nations Environment Programme) expert Essam El-Hinnawi uses the term 'environmental refugees' in place of ‘environmental migrants,’ and he defines them as people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, due to environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) endangering their existence and affecting their quality of life (El-Hinnawi, 1985). El-Hinnawi’s usage of the word refugee enforces hope that these displaced individuals might someday be granted refugee status, but it must also be noted that he is still one of extremely few.
People seeking asylum in the European Union could grow up to 450,000 annually by 2100. It is important to note that while Europe is home to many of the world’s already developed countries, its landmass is generally smaller compared to areas displaced people will be coming from. However, one thing many researchers tend to overlook is that climate refugees may come from Europe, too.
Alexandra Bilak, director of the IDMC (Internal Displacement and Monitoring Center), states that “disaster displacement is very much a global phenomenon, even in high-income countries like the ones in Europe.” Places such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Spain, France, and Germany will produce internal migrants for Europe — migrants displaced by extreme climate-related events. Euronews documents that climate events displacing individuals in Europe have actually more than doubled in the last four years. From 43 noted events in 2016 to 100 in 2019. By February 2020, four more storms — Gloria, Brendan, Ciara, and Dennis – had already ravaged the continent’s northern and western coasts (Martinez & Monella, 2019). But, of course, a larger portion would still come from outside the continent. The world population is projected to reach nearly 10 billion by the year 2050, putting additional pressure on the scarcity of resources and fuelling conflict. The Ecological Threat Register predicts that as many as 1.2 billion people living in vulnerable areas of Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East will be forced to migrate by 2050 (Brzozowski, 2020). The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees states that many reside in climate "hotspots” — areas lacking resources needed in adapting to increasingly hostile environments. To make matters worse, impoverished communities in vulnerable areas are left no time to recover from calamities (UNCHR). Joanna Apap of The European Parliamentary Research Service shares in a 2019 paper that one of the key challenges in securing protection for those displaced by climate change lies in the complexities involved in defining the term 'climate refugee', while also taking the pre-existing discourse surrounding the Refugee Convention and previous attempts to define 'environmental refugees' into account. Although the number of climate refugees continues to grow in abundance, there is still no international legal recognition for such a group, even if the term 'environmental refugees' has been in use since 1970 (Apap, 2019). The EU has yet to formally recognize climate refugees, but there is historical evidence of the union showing concern and taking solutions into consideration. However, there remains to be a clear protection gap with regard to 'climate refugees', who are neither clearly defined as a category nor covered by the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees (the 1951 Refugee Convention) (Apap, 2019). As a solution, the latest draft of the United Nations migration compact calls on its members to prioritize understanding and predicting migration movements resulting from natural disasters, and to strengthen the development of planned relocation solutions and visa options for climate migrants (McDonnell, 2018).
Refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs) are on the frontlines of the climate crisis. The Philippines is the second most vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Eckstein et al., 2020). At present, the country boasts a total of 7,107 islands, but with the continuous worsening of global climate conditions, it is unknown which of these islands will see the end of the century. Majority of the expected climate-displaced individuals are set to originate from the Asia and Pacific region, according to a report issued by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. The region fell victim to 26 climate disasters in the past year, three of which hit the Philippines in a month, with one being a Category 5 storm that cost at least a million people their homes, and rendered three million without basic needs (Weisbrod, 2021). This was Typhoon Goni. But it’s not just the Philippines having to brave one cataclysm after another, climate-vulnerable countries exist all across the globe. Refugees from MAPA countries are about to flock to developed nations, and heads of state, as well as international organizations, must amend existing policies and ratify new ones before we find ourselves unprepared for a new wave of displaced refugees knocking on our doorsteps.
Climate change will create not just some of humanity’s greatest ecological problems, it will also be a catalyst for international cooperation and innovation. The United Nations must accept the term ‘climate refugee’ in order for people displaced by environmental disasters to seek proper asylum and be eligible for refugee benefits. Migrants leave their home countries by choice — refugees are driven out. The term migrant simply wouldn’t be enough. There needs to be intergovernmental action on the subject of what to do with one billion displaced individuals. Heads of state must discuss stronger disaster management strategies and policies, as well as making improvements in city planning, with new plans centered on making living spaces more adept at surviving environmental hazards such as floods. Cities at risk of flooding could “consider innovative mitigation in action: raising roads, shoring up sea walls, adding pumps and drainage upgrades, beginning dredging projects, offering complex insurance structures” as eclipsed in the coastal areas of Florida; a cheaper alternative to the Dutch dike system (Bergman, 2019). The United Nations, along with national governments, must begin funding these projects. Climate change is more than just plastic in the ocean and a few trees dying, it is an inequality maximizer, and if we, as a society, cannot prevent the numerical growth of the refugee population, then the least we could do is prepare ourselves for their arrival.
Bibliography: 1. Apap, J. (2019). The concept of 'climate refugee' towards a possible definition (Doctoral dissertation) (pp. 1-11). European Parliamentary Research Service.
2. Brzozowski, A. (2020, September 09). Ecology threats likely to send more climate refugees towards Europe by 2050. Retrieved April 12, 2021, from https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/ecology-threats-likely-to-send-more-climate-refugees-towards-europe-by-2050/
3. Eckstein, David, et al. “Who Suffers Most from Extreme Weather Events? Weather-Related Loss Events in 2018 and 1999 to 2018.” Global Climate Risk Index, 2020.
4. Harvey, Fiona. “Children Urged to Strike against Lack of Action on Climate Emergency.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 21 Sept. 2020, www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/21/schoolchildren-strike-climate-emergency#:~:text=The%20protests%20will%20focus%20on,symbolising%20strength%2C%20solidarity%20and%20hope.
5. Martinez, Marta Rodriguez. “Extreme Weather Exiles: How Climate Change Is Making European Migrants.” Euronews, 17 June 2020, www.euronews.com/2020/02/26/extreme-weather-exiles-how-climate-change-is-turning-europeans-into-migrants.
6. McDonnell, Tim. “The Refugees The World Barely Pays Attention To.” NPR, NPR, 20 June 2018, www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/06/20/621782275/the-refugees-that-the-world-barely-pays-attention-to.
7. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. “Climate Change and Disaster Displacement.” UNHCR, www.unhcr.org/climate-change-and-disasters.html.
Weisbrod, Katelyn. “Warming Trends: Climate Refugees, Ocean Benefits and Tropical Species Moving North.” Inside Climate News, 20 Mar. 2021, insideclimatenews.org/news/20032021/warming-trends-natural-disasters-create-the-most-refugees-new-climate-benefits-from-ocean-protections-and-tropical-species-moving-to-the-southern-us/.
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